The most recent forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts warns of a high probability of El Niño development in 2026, which could have direct effects on sensitive sectors such as agriculture in Ecuador.

According to the European seasonal model, the equatorial Pacific is going through a transition phase from La Niña conditions to a neutral state, with increasing probabilities of evolving towards El Niño between mid and the second half of 2026.

The scenarios analysed even contemplate the possibility of a moderate to strong event, depending on the intensity of ocean warming in the coming months. If this scenario is confirmed, Ecuador could face an increase in rainfall, especially in the Coast region, with risks of:

• Floods and river overflow
• Effects on sensitive crops
• Problems in rural infrastructure

At the same time, other parts of the country could experience changes in usual weather patterns, affecting agricultural planning. Although forecasts may still be adjusted in the coming months, the ECMWF agrees with other international centres that conditions are increasingly favourable for El Niño formation.